{"id":2556,"date":"2025-04-10T08:26:25","date_gmt":"2025-04-10T00:26:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.azbai.com.cn\/?p=2556"},"modified":"2025-04-10T08:27:52","modified_gmt":"2025-04-10T00:27:52","slug":"%e4%b8%ad%e7%be%8e%e5%85%b3%e7%a8%8e%e5%a2%9e%e5%8a%a0%e7%9a%84%e5%8a%a8%e5%9b%a0%e3%80%81%e7%bb%8f%e6%b5%8e%e6%95%88%e5%ba%94%e4%b8%8e%e9%95%bf%e6%9c%9f%e5%bd%b1%e5%93%8d%ef%bc%9a%e5%9f%ba%e4%ba%8e","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.azbai.com.cn\/?p=2556","title":{"rendered":"\u4e2d\u7f8e\u5173\u7a0e\u589e\u52a0\u7684\u52a8\u56e0\u3001\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6548\u5e94\u4e0e\u957f\u671f\u5f71\u54cd\uff1a\u57fa\u4e8e\u8d38\u6613\u653f\u6cbb\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u7684\u5206\u6790"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><strong>\u6458\u8981<\/strong><br>\u672c\u6587\u4ee52018\u5e74\u4ee5\u6765\u4e2d\u7f8e\u591a\u8f6e\u5173\u7a0e\u52a0\u5f81\u4e3a\u7814\u7a76\u5bf9\u8c61\uff0c\u901a\u8fc7\u8d38\u6613\u653f\u6cbb\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u89c6\u89d2\u5206\u6790\u5176\u52a8\u56e0\uff0c\u5e76\u91c7\u7528GTAP\u6a21\u578b\u91cf\u5316\u8bc4\u4f30\u5173\u7a0e\u5bf9\u4e24\u56fd\u5b8f\u89c2\u7ecf\u6d4e\u3001\u4ea7\u4e1a\u5e03\u5c40\u53ca\u5168\u7403\u4ef7\u503c\u94fe\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u7814\u7a76\u53d1\u73b0\uff0c\u5173\u7a0e\u63aa\u65bd\u5728\u77ed\u671f\u5185\u5b9e\u73b0\u4e86\u90e8\u5206\u653f\u6cbb\u76ee\u6807\uff0c\u4f46\u957f\u671f\u52a0\u5267\u4e86\u53cc\u8fb9\u8d38\u6613\u8f6c\u79fb\u6548\u5e94\u4e0e\u798f\u5229\u635f\u5931\u3002\u4e2d\u56fd\u901a\u8fc7\u4ea7\u4e1a\u94fe\u5347\u7ea7\u4e0e\u591a\u5143\u5316\u51fa\u53e3\u5e02\u573a\u90e8\u5206\u62b5\u6d88\u4e86\u5173\u7a0e\u51b2\u51fb\uff0c\u800c\u7f8e\u56fd\u5219\u9762\u4e34\u6d88\u8d39\u8005\u6210\u672c\u4e0a\u5347\u4e0e\u901a\u80c0\u538b\u529b\u3002\u672c\u6587\u5efa\u8bae\u901a\u8fc7WTO\u6539\u9769\u4e0e\u53cc\u8fb9\u534f\u5546\u91cd\u6784\u8d38\u6613\u89c4\u5219\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">1. \u5f15\u8a00<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>\u80cc\u666f<\/strong>\uff1a2018\u5e74\u7279\u6717\u666e\u653f\u5e9c\u4f9d\u636e&#8221;301\u8c03\u67e5&#8221;\u5bf9\u4e2d\u56fd340\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u5546\u54c1\u52a0\u5f8125%\u5173\u7a0e\uff0c\u5f15\u53d1\u4e2d\u7f8e\u8d38\u6613\u6218\u3002\u81f32023\u5e74\uff0c\u53cc\u65b9\u5e73\u5747\u5173\u7a0e\u7a0e\u7387\u5206\u522b\u5347\u81f319.3%\uff08\u7f8e\u5bf9\u4e2d\uff09\u548c21.1%\uff08\u4e2d\u5bf9\u7f8e\uff09\uff08PIIE, 2023\uff09\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\u7814\u7a76\u95ee\u9898<\/strong>\uff1a\u5173\u7a0e\u63aa\u65bd\u662f\u5426\u5b9e\u73b0\u5176\u5ba3\u79f0\u76ee\u6807\uff1f\u5bf9\u4e24\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4e0e\u5168\u7403\u8d38\u6613\u4f53\u7cfb\u4ea7\u751f\u4f55\u79cd\u7ed3\u6784\u6027\u5f71\u54cd\uff1f<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\u7814\u7a76\u65b9\u6cd5<\/strong>\uff1a\u6587\u732e\u5206\u6790\u3001GTAP\u6a21\u62df\u3001\u8d38\u6613\u6570\u636e\u56de\u5f52\u5206\u6790\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">2. \u7406\u8bba\u6846\u67b6\u4e0e\u6587\u732e\u7efc\u8ff0<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>\u8d38\u6613\u4fdd\u62a4\u4e3b\u4e49\u7406\u8bba<\/strong>\uff1a\u5e7c\u7a1a\u4ea7\u4e1a\u4fdd\u62a4\u8bba\uff08Hamilton, 1791\uff09\u3001\u6218\u7565\u8d38\u6613\u653f\u7b56\uff08Brander &amp; Spencer, 1985\uff09<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\u653f\u6cbb\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u89c6\u89d2<\/strong>\uff1aGrossman-Helpman\u6a21\u578b\uff081994\uff09\u63ed\u793a\u5229\u76ca\u96c6\u56e2\u5bf9\u5173\u7a0e\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u5f71\u54cd<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\u4e89\u8bae\u70b9<\/strong>\uff1a\u73b0\u6709\u7814\u7a76\u5bf9\u5173\u7a0e\u798f\u5229\u6548\u5e94\u7684\u6d4b\u7b97\u5b58\u5728\u5206\u6b67\uff08\u5982Amiti et al., 2019\u53d1\u73b0\u7f8e\u56fd\u6d88\u8d39\u8005\u627f\u62c596%\u5173\u7a0e\u6210\u672c\uff09<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">3. \u4e2d\u7f8e\u5173\u7a0e\u653f\u7b56\u6f14\u8fdb<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>\u9636\u6bb5\u5212\u5206<\/strong>\uff1a<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u7b2c\u4e00\u9636\u6bb5\uff082018-2019\uff09\uff1a\u9488\u5bf9\u673a\u68b0\u3001\u7535\u5b50\u7b49\u9ad8\u79d1\u6280\u4ea7\u54c1<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u7b2c\u4e8c\u9636\u6bb5\uff082020-2021\uff09\uff1a\u6269\u5c55\u81f3\u6d88\u8d39\u54c1\u5982\u5bb6\u5177\u3001\u7eba\u7ec7\u54c1<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u7b2c\u4e09\u9636\u6bb5\uff082022\u81f3\u4eca\uff09\uff1a\u6d89\u53ca\u65b0\u80fd\u6e90\u4e0e\u534a\u5bfc\u4f53\u4ea7\u4e1a\u94fe<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\u5173\u952e\u7279\u5f81<\/strong>\uff1a<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u7f8e\u56fd\uff1a\u5173\u7a0e\u6e05\u5355\u4e0e&#8221;\u4e2d\u56fd\u5236\u90202025&#8243;\u9ad8\u5ea6\u91cd\u5408\uff08USTR, 2018\uff09<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u4e2d\u56fd\uff1a\u5dee\u5f02\u5316\u53cd\u51fb\uff08\u5927\u8c46\u7b49\u519c\u4ea7\u54c1\u76ee\u6807\u7279\u6717\u666e\u7968\u4ed3\uff09<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">4. \u7ecf\u6d4e\u6548\u5e94\u5206\u6790<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">4.1 \u5b8f\u89c2\u5f71\u54cd<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>\u8d38\u6613\u6d41\u91cf<\/strong>\uff1a2022\u5e74\u4e2d\u56fd\u5bf9\u7f8e\u51fa\u53e3\u8f832018\u5e74\u589e\u957f12%\uff0c\u4f46\u4efd\u989d\u4ece21%\u964d\u81f316%\uff08UN Comtrade\uff09<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\u798f\u5229\u635f\u5931<\/strong>\uff1a<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u7f8e\u56fd\uff1aGDP\u7d2f\u8ba1\u635f\u59310.5%\uff08Petri &amp; Banga, 2022\uff09<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u4e2d\u56fd\uff1a\u51fa\u53e3\u90e8\u95e8\u5c31\u4e1a\u51cf\u5c11\u7ea6200\u4e07\u4eba\uff08CEPR, 2021\uff09<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">4.2 \u4ea7\u4e1a\u5c42\u9762<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>\u7f8e\u56fd<\/strong>\uff1a<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u53d7\u76ca\u4ea7\u4e1a\uff1a\u521d\u7ea7\u91d1\u5c5e\uff08+9%\u4ea7\u51fa\uff09\u3001\u6728\u6750\u52a0\u5de5\uff08+5%\uff09<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u53d7\u635f\u4ea7\u4e1a\uff1a\u7535\u5b50\u8bbe\u5907\uff08-15%\u5229\u6da6\u7387\uff09<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\u4e2d\u56fd<\/strong>\uff1a<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u88ab\u8feb\u52a0\u901f&#8221;\u53cc\u5faa\u73af&#8221;\u6218\u7565\uff0c\u5bf9\u4e1c\u76df\u51fa\u53e3\u589e\u957f34%\uff082022\uff09<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">4.3 \u5168\u7403\u4ef7\u503c\u94fe\u91cd\u6784<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>\u8d8a\u5357\u3001\u58a8\u897f\u54e5\u6210\u4e3a&#8221;\u8d38\u6613\u8f6c\u79fb&#8221;\u6700\u5927\u53d7\u76ca\u8005\uff08Bown, 2023\uff09<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u534a\u5bfc\u4f53\u7b49\u6218\u7565\u4ea7\u4e1a\u51fa\u73b0&#8221;\u8fd1\u5cb8\u5916\u5305&#8221;\u8d8b\u52bf<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">5. \u653f\u6cbb\u52a8\u56e0\u4e0e\u6218\u7565\u535a\u5f08<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u5185\u56e0\u7d20<\/strong>\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>\u5236\u9020\u4e1a\u56de\u6d41\u8bc9\u6c42\uff08\u5173\u952e\u6447\u6446\u5dde\u9009\u7968\u538b\u529b\uff09<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u5bf9\u534e\u6280\u672f\u904f\u5236\u7684&#8221;\u5c0f\u9662\u9ad8\u5899&#8221;\u7b56\u7565<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\u4e2d\u56fd\u5e94\u5bf9\u903b\u8f91<\/strong>\uff1a<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u975e\u5bf9\u79f0\u53cd\u5236\uff08\u9650\u5236\u7a00\u571f\u51fa\u53e3\u7b49\uff09<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>RCEP\u7b49\u591a\u8fb9\u6846\u67b6\u5bf9\u51b2\u98ce\u9669<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">6. \u7ed3\u8bba\u4e0e\u653f\u7b56\u542f\u793a<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>\u4e3b\u8981\u7ed3\u8bba<\/strong>\uff1a<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>\u5173\u7a0e\u672a\u80fd\u6839\u672c\u6539\u53d8\u4e2d\u7f8e\u8d38\u6613\u5931\u8861\uff082023\u5e74\u9006\u5dee\u4ecd\u8fbe3820\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\uff09<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u50ac\u751f\u6548\u7387\u635f\u5931\u66f4\u9ad8\u7684\u5168\u7403\u751f\u4ea7\u7f51\u7edc<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>\u653f\u7b56\u5efa\u8bae<\/strong>\uff1a<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u5efa\u7acb&#8221;\u8d1f\u9762\u6e05\u5355&#8221;\u5f0f\u5173\u7a0e\u8c41\u514d\u673a\u5236<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u91cd\u542f\u4e2d\u7f8eBIT\u8c08\u5224\u4ee5\u66ff\u4ee3\u5173\u7a0e\u6218<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\u7814\u7a76\u5c40\u9650<\/strong>\uff1a\u672a\u5145\u5206\u91cf\u5316\u6280\u672f\u8131\u94a9\u7684\u957f\u671f\u6210\u672c<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u53c2\u8003\u6587\u732e<\/strong><br>[1] Amiti M, et al. (2019). &#8220;The Impact of the 2018 Tariffs on Prices and Welfare&#8221;. <em>JEP<\/em> 33(4).<br>[2] Bown C.P. (2023). <em>US-China Trade War Tariffs: An Updat<\/em>e. PIIE Working Paper.<br>[3] \u56fd\u52a1\u9662\u53d1\u5c55\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u5fc3 (2022). \u300a\u4e2d\u7f8e\u7ecf\u8d38\u6469\u64e6\u8bc4\u4f30\u62a5\u544a\u300b.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u6269\u5c55\u5efa\u8bae<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>\u53ef\u589e\u52a0\u8ba1\u91cf\u6a21\u578b\uff08\u5982\u53cc\u91cd\u5dee\u5206\u6cd5\uff09\u9a8c\u8bc1\u5173\u7a0e\u5bf9\u7279\u5b9a\u884c\u4e1a\u7684\u5f71\u54cd<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u52a0\u5165\u4f01\u4e1a\u5fae\u89c2\u6570\u636e\uff08\u5982A\u80a1\u4e0a\u5e02\u516c\u53f8\u51fa\u53e3\u97e7\u6027\u5206\u6790\uff09<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u6bd4\u8f83\u5386\u53f2\u6848\u4f8b\uff08\u59821980\u5e74\u4ee3\u7f8e\u65e5\u8d38\u6613\u6218\uff09<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<h3 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[&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_uag_custom_page_level_css":"","site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"set","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center 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